US Dollar Price Action Setups Post-FOMC Dip and Rip: EUR/USD, GBP/USD

EURUSD, GBPUSD, US Dollar Talking Points:

欧元兑美元，英镑兑美元，美元谈话要点：

- Yesterdays FOMC meeting brought little by way of new information but there was a very decent show of volatility. The US Dollar initially dropped on the statement release, but as the press conference began buyers quickly returned to the table to push prices back-up to prior resistance at 97.70. Price action remains near that zone the morning after.

- 昨天FOMC会议几乎没有提供新的信息，但有一个非常不错的波动性表现。美元在声明发布时最初下跌，但随着新闻发布会开始，买家迅速回到桌面推动价格回升至先前阻力位97.70。价格行动在上午后仍然在该区域附近。

- This brought along notable moves in both EUR/USD and GBP/USD; but as the US equity open nears, the bigger question is whether stocks might be at a turn. The S&P 500 is testing support in a rising wedge formation, which will often be approached with the aim of bearish reversals. The big question is whether that would be a more of a pullback, or whether bears might re-grab control, similar to what happened in Q4.

- 这带来了欧元/美元和英镑/美元的显着走势;但随着美国股市开盘接近，更大的问题是股市是否会出现转机。标准普尔500指数正在测试支撑位于上升的楔形形态，通常会以看跌逆转为目标。最重要的问题是，这是否会更多的是回调，或者熊是否会重新获得控制权，类似于第四季度发生的情况。

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您想了解零售交易商目前如何交易美元？查看我们的IG客户情绪指标。

US Dollar Dips, then Rips on FOMC

美元贬值，然后是FOMC上的撕裂

Yesterday‘s FOMC meeting wasn’t expected to bring much by way of new information. As a matter of fact, many traders went into the announcement looking to merely gleam clues from Chair Powells press conference, and this is when matters started to get very interesting.

昨天的FOMC会议没有期望通过新信息带来更多。事实上，很多交易员都在宣布这一消息，只是想从Powells主席的新闻发布会上找到线索，这就是事情开始变得非常有趣的时候。

On the initial release of the FOMC statement, the US Dollar posed a quick test below support at last week‘s lows. But, as Chair Powell got started on the press conference, USD bulls quickly came back and continued to push until prices had firmed right back to the 97.70 level, which was the prior yearly high ahead of last week’s breakout. The US Dollar remains around this area ahead of this morning‘s US equity open, and with Non-Farm Payrolls on the docket for tomorrow, we likely haven’t seen the last of volatility in this theme.

最初美国联邦公开市场委员会发表声明，美元在上周的低点构成快速测试支撑位。但是，随着鲍威尔主席在新闻发布会上开始，美元多头迅速回归并继续推动，直到价格回升至97.70水平，这是上周突破前的年度高点。美元仍然在这个区域附近今天早上的美国股票开放，以及明天的非农就业数据，我们可能还没有看到这个主题的最后一次波动。

US Dollar Eight-Hour Price Chart

美国美元八小时价格图表

Chart prepared by James Stanley

由James Stanley编制的图表

Shorter-term, the US Dollar has struck a tone of balance after the rate decision, with resistance holding around that 97.70 area and near-term support coming-in around the 97.50 spot on the chart. This can make directional prognostications difficult, as there isn‘t really a tonality that’s carried over through the FOMC rate decision yesterday, price action has merely retraced a portion of the prior pullback. So drivers moving-forward will be key, the highlight of which is tomorrows Non-Farm Payrolls release that currently carries an expectation for +190k jobs to have been added to American payrolls in the month of April.

短期内，美元有在利率决定后触及平衡基调，阻力位于97.70区域附近，近期支撑位于图表上的97.50附近。这可能使定向预测变得困难，因为昨天通过FOMC利率决定并没有真正的调性，价格行动仅仅回撤了先前回调的一部分。因此，推动前进的车手将是关键，其重点是明天的非农就业数据发布，目前预计将在4月份将美国非农就业人数增加到19万个就业岗位。

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US Dollar Daily Price Chart

美元每日价格走势图

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Chart prepared by James Stanley

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EUR/USD Pulls Back, Resists at Last Weeks Highs – Can Buyers Evoke a Turn？

欧元/美元回落，抵消了上周的高位 - 买家能否出现转机？

Along with that volatile FOMC move around the US Dollar was a similar theme pricing-in to the EUR/USD. The pair saw a flicker of strength around the FOMC statement, at which point prices firmed-up to find resistance around last weeks highs; and as US Dollar bulls came rushing back into the equation, prices hurriedly dropped back down to a key zone of support.

随着FOMC在美国的波动美元是与欧元/美元相似的主题定价。两人看了一眼FOMC声明周围的强势，此时价格坚挺在上周的高点附近找到阻力;随着美元多头重新回到这个等式中，价格匆匆回落到一个关键的支撑区域。

That zone of support is the same that helped cauterize the lows for almost six months as the pair was ranging. Last weeks rush of USD-strength and Euro-weakness saw the first test below this zone of prices since June of 2017; but, since then, sellers were largely marginalized as prices continued to bounce.

这个支撑区同样有助于烧毁低点差不多有六个月了。上周美元走强和欧元走软是2017年6月以来第一次低于该区域的测试;但是，从那以后，随着价格继续反弹，卖家基本上处于边缘地位。

The big question around the pair at this point is whether buyers return to hold support in that very key zone that‘s been in-play for the past half-of-a-year. Yesterday’s resistance reaction was an encouraging sign to bears; but the fact that this response was thwarted at such a key area on the chart, exhibiting what may become a higher-low, and EUR/USD bears would at least want to entertain the possibility of a revisit of the 1.1250-1.1262 zone, and perhaps even a push-up to April highs around 1.1325.

此时该货币对的一个重要问题是买家是否会回到那个关键区域寻求支持在过去的半年里一直在玩。昨天的阻力反应对空头来说是一个令人鼓舞的迹象;但事实上，这种反应在图表上的这个关键区域被挫败，表现出可能成为更高的低点，欧元/美元空头至少会想要重新审视1.1250-1.1262区域的可能性，以及甚至可能推升至4月高位1.1325附近。

EUR/USD Four-Hour Price Chart

欧元/美元四小时价格走势图

Chart prepared by James Stanley

詹姆斯·斯坦利编制的图表

GBP/USD Rallies to Resistance, Holds on Hawkish BoE Shift

英镑/美元反抗阻力，坚持鹰派英国央行转变

This morning brought a Super Thursday rate decision out of the BoE, and along with it came a very curious item. The bank cut inflation forecasts; but they also warned that additional hikes may be needed in the future. In response, it appears as though GBP-traders dont yet know what to do, as the pair has merely exhibited a widened range without a specific directional push. This can make for a difficult backdrop if trying to pick a direction in the pair.

今天上午带来了超级星期四的价格决定退出英国央行，随之而来的是一个非常奇怪的项目。该银行下调通胀预测;但他们也警告说，将来可能需要再加息。作为回应，似乎英镑交易者还不知道该怎么做，因为该货币对只是展示了一个没有特定方向推动的扩大范围。如果试图选择方向，这可能会造成困难的背景。

GBP/USD 30 Minute Price Chart

英镑/美元30分钟价格图表

Chart prepared by James Stanley

图表由James Stanley编写

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On the other side of the matter – a previously strong zone of support was traded through during yesterdays bullish run, and price action also pushed over the bearish trend-line that previously made up resistance in the descending triangle. If prices do push back to support at 1.2960-1.3000, similar to the way that EUR/USD has done so with the 1.1187-1.1212, the door can re-open to bullish strategies.

另一方面 - 在昨天看涨的交易中，之前强劲的支撑区间被交易，价格走势也推动了之前构成阻力位的看跌趋势线。如果价格确实回到支撑位1.2960-1.3000，类似于欧元/美元兑1.1187-1.1212的做法，门可以重新开启至b ullish策略。{/ p>

The reason this higher-low support would be more attractive than what was seen above is the possibility of more rate hikes and a more-hawkish BoE; while the ECB is expected to stay loose for the foreseeable future.

这种高低支持比上面提到的更具吸引力的原因是更多加息的可能性和更强硬的英国央行;预计欧洲央行将在可预见的未来保持宽松。

GBP/USD Eight-Hour Price Chart

英镑/美元八小时价格图表

Chart prepared by James Stanley

James Stanley编制的图表

Are Stocks Nearing a Turn？

股市是否接近转折？

A key question ahead of this mornings US equity open: Are stocks nearing a turn？

今早美国股票发行前的一个关键问题开放：股市是否接近转折？

The Fed has been key to US equity performance so far this year. Stocks tanked in Q4, right on the back of some comments from Chair Powell that alluded to a number of future rate hikes. But, as the pain increased throughout Q4, the Feds posture around rate hikes did as well, until eventually we saw a dovish turn at the bank that was confirmed at the March FOMC rate decision. This is when the Fed cut forecast for rate hikes in 2019, from the prior two down to zero, and this further helped stocks as risk appetite ruled the day.

今年到目前为止，美联储一直是美国股市表现的关键。在第四季度股市大幅下挫，正好在鲍威尔主席的一些评论的背后，暗示了未来的一些加息。但是，随着整个第四季度的痛苦增加，联邦调查局在加息的同时也采取了这种态度，直到最终我们看到银行的温和转向，这在3月FOMC利率决定中得到了证实。 Ť美联储在2019年将加息预期从之前的两次下调至零，这是因为当风险偏好统治当天时，这进一步帮助股市。

S&P 500 Weekly Price Chart

标普500周线价格图表

Chart prepared by James Stanley

图表由James Stanley编制

In short order, equities were right back to that Q4 high, at which point buyers began to stumble.

在短期内，股市回到第四季度高点，此时买家开始跌跌撞撞。

Yesterday‘s rate decision brought an initial support test of that prior yearly high of around 2940 in the S&P 500. But that support couldn’t hold and sellers have continued to push, and at this point, price action is testing trend-line support from a rising wedge formation, which will often be approached with the aim of bearish reversals.

昨天的利率决定对标准普尔500指数中之前的年度高点2940左右进行了初步支撑测试。但这种支持无法实现持有和卖方继续推动，此时，价格走势正在测试趋势线支撑位于上升的楔形形态，这通常会以看跌逆转为目标。

S&P 500 Four-Hour Price Chart

标准普尔500指数四小时价格图表

Chart prepared by James Stanley

图表由James Stanley编写

To read more:

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Are you looking for longer-term analysis on the U.S. Dollar？ Our DailyFX Forecasts for Q2 have a section for each major currency, and we also offer a plethora of resources on USD-pairs such as EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY, AUD/USD. Traders can also stay up with near-term positioning via our IG Client Sentiment Indicator.

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